A groundbreaking study led by Dr. Liam Lachs of Newcastle University highlights that coral adaptation via natural selection may struggle to keep pace with global warming unless global greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced. Published in Science, the research underscores the critical need for achieving Paris Agreement targets to limit warming to 2°C.
The study developed an eco-evolutionary simulation model to assess coral populations in Palau, combining thermal biology, ecology, and evolutionary data. Findings reveal that while natural selection could enhance heat tolerance, it may be insufficient under moderate to high emissions scenarios, where global temperatures are expected to rise by 3–5°C by the century’s end.
Dr. Lachs stated, “Marine heatwaves are causing mass coral bleaching, and their increasing intensity under climate change threatens shallow tropical reef ecosystems.” Co-author Prof. Peter Mumby added, “Aggressive emissions reductions and strategic reef management are vital to preserving coral species.”
Innovative solutions, such as assisted evolution interventions, could boost corals’ heat tolerance, but these remain experimental. Study co-author Dr. James Guest emphasized the urgency of designing climate-smart reef management strategies to maximize genetic adaptation.
The researchers assert that rapid climate action is critical to preserving coral reef biodiversity and functionality. Dr. Lachs concluded, “Genetic adaptation could offset some coral losses, but only with swift global action on emissions.”